Pay went up. Hawaiʻi’s economy kept going.

BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Hawaiʻi private jobs, average for January–March 2022 and January–March 2026. The 10 lowest-paying industries (food service, retail, child care and others, ranked by early-2022 weekly pay; about a quarter of private jobs) went from 124,330 to 133,679 jobs: +9,349, up 7.5% (our calculation from the BLS files). Over these years Hawaiʻi’s minimum wage rose from $10.10 to $16, and it reaches $18 in 2028. Jobs and raises happened together; this does not show that one caused the other. In early 2022, Hawaiʻi jobs were still recovering from the 2020 shutdown.

Minimum wage: Hawaiʻi DLIR.

Updated Nov 11, 2026.

Added pay, all low-wage workers. Our estimate, from the LWH Raise Estimate Method Memo (Nov 2026), re-run for each wage with the same kit and settings. Every Hawaiʻi job paid under the new minimum is raised to it, starting from the $18 minimum. BLS wages for 22 job groups (May 2025) carried forward 7% to 2027, at 1,500 hours a year because many low-wage jobs are part time. Low end: wages carried 10.5% to 2028. High end: May 2025 wages at 1,700 hours. Before taxes. No “ripple” raises for people just above the new minimum. It measures the size of the pay change, not a net gain to the economy.
• $18 → $25: $1.77 billion a year (range $1.60–2.40 billion), about 245,000 jobs (39% of 627,530); shown as $1.8B; ÷ $1,412.9 million = 1.25, “about 1¼ times”
• $18 → $28: $3.00 billion a year (range $2.76–3.97 billion), about 301,000 jobs (48% of 627,530); shown as $3.0B; ÷ $1,483.7 million = 2.02, “about 2 times”
• $18 → $30: $3.95 billion a year (range $3.67–5.16 billion), about 335,000 jobs (53% of 627,530); shown as $4.0B; ÷ $1,529.3 million = 2.58, “more than 2½ times”

Aid and tax breaks today (shown to the nearest $10 million; the total is the sum of the rounded rows, so it can be up to $10 million above the exact sum; ratios use exact sums). The first four rows are statewide totals for everyone who gets them, not only the workers who would get a raise. SNAP also goes to retirees, people with disabilities and people not working. The earned income credit and the refunded child tax credit need earnings, but some families who get them earn more than the picked wage. Hawaiʻi’s credits mix the earned income credit (workers) and the food/excise credit (any low-income filer). SNAP benefits in Hawaiʻi $686.96 million (USDA via KFF, fiscal year 2025). Federal earned income credit $200.7 million and refundable child tax credit (additional child tax credit) $117.1 million (IRS Statistics of Income, Historic Table 2, Hawaiʻi, tax year 2023). Hawaiʻi refundable earned income and food/excise credits $141.0 million (DOTAX, tax year 2023). These four rows stay the same at every wage because they are what exists today; we did not model how statewide SNAP and credits would shrink as pay rose.

2024 state tax cut, for these workers (our estimate). Only the part of Act 46 (Session Laws of Hawaiʻi 2024, as amended by Act 24 of 2026) that goes to the jobs paid under the picked wage. The whole cut is about $922.7 million in fiscal year 2028 for all taxpayers (Department of Taxation estimate, Council on Revenues report, May 26, 2026); we no longer show that figure, because most of it goes to people who would not get a raise. For each job under the picked wage we use the same wage curve, hours and wage aging as the added-pay estimate, and its 2028 pay at the $18 minimum (its wage, or $18 if lower, × 1,500 hours). We figure Hawaiʻi income tax on that pay under the law before Act 46 (tax year 2023: $2,200 standard deduction, 1.4% on the first $2,400, rising to 7.6% by $24,000) and under the 2028 law ($9,000 standard deduction, 1.4% up to $14,400, then 2.5% and 5% after Act 24), with one $1,144 personal exemption and no other income (Department of Taxation Announcements 2024-03 and 2026-06; Hawaiʻi Revised Statutes 235-51 before Act 46). The cut is the difference. Example: $27,000 of pay owed $1,329 before and $263 in 2028, a cut of $1,066. The wage data counts jobs, not people, so we take off 7.6% for second jobs (Hawaiʻi multiple jobholders as a share of the employed, 2024, State of Hawaiʻi Data Book Table 12.24, from BLS). Married sensitivity: the same pay as a couple’s only income, filing jointly ($4,400 → $18,000 standard deduction, two exemptions). It gives a smaller cut, because the old joint brackets already taxed low pay lightly. Range: low end = wages carried forward 10.5% and married filing; high end = May 2025 wages at 1,700 hours, single, nothing taken off for second jobs. This is pay before the raise; at the new wage the cut would be about 10–20% bigger. It is tax year 2028, next to fiscal-year and older figures in the other rows.
• Under $25 (245,031 jobs): single filers $289.1 million (about $1,180 a job), less 7.6% = $267.1 million, shown as $270M. Married sensitivity $201.6 million. Range $190–356 million. Aid total $1,412.9 million (shown $1.42 billion)
• Under $28 (300,696 jobs): single filers $365.8 million (about $1,216 a job), less 7.6% = $338.0 million, shown as $340M. Married sensitivity $272.5 million. Range $261–438 million. Aid total $1,483.7 million (shown $1.49 billion)
• Under $30 (335,062 jobs): single filers $415.0 million (about $1,239 a job), less 7.6% = $383.5 million, shown as $380M. Married sensitivity $322.8 million. Range $312–486 million. Aid total $1,529.3 million (shown $1.53 billion) Years are mixed because these are the latest published. Health coverage (Med-QUEST), TANF cash aid, WIC and school meals are left out.